The Vietnamese rush: opportunities and power structure

In 2023, Vietnam became the fourth country worldwide with the most manufacturing suppliers for Apple, only trailing China, Taiwan and Japan. As American tech companies look to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturers, Vietnamese politicians manage to build an appealing business environment to attract them and cash in on their pivot. Over the 20th century, Vietnam has sadly epitomized the tussle for influence between global superpowers. It fought against both the USA and China and normalized its diplomatic relations with the latter only in 1991. As Vietnam has progressively opened its economy through the Doi Moi policy implemented in the 1980s, both former enemies have become potential economic partners.  Nowadays, with a young and well-educated population of soon 100 million inhabitants, Vietnam appears as one of the key emerging markets in Asia-Pacific. Consequently, foreign companies try to capture its momentum and cash in on its huge potential. How has it materialized in the telecommunications industry? Which companies are best positioned to secure future vantage points? How do Vietnamese companies perform compared to their foreign counterparts?  Chinese companies have a hard time gaining influence China has recently faced some challenges in Vietnam, notably due to US competition. Xi Jinping and Joe Biden both visited the country in 2023, showing their commitment to build a close relationship with it. Both rivals compete against each other regarding infrastructure deployment. Vietnam has experienced several Internet disruptions lately due to aging subsea cables, and thus planned to build ten new ones by 2030. Only four companies can win this contract: America’s Subcom, Japan’s NEC, France’s Alcatel Submarine Networks, and Chinese HMN Technologies. The US have been reportedly strongly advising Vietnamese officials not to partner with HMN Technologies, due to poor quality of service and security considerations. It is still unclear which company will be chosen by the Vietnamese government, but cybersecurity will be one of the key criteria. Chinese companies have also lost tenders to European companies. Local operator MobiFone has opted for Nokia to deploy 5G in Q3 2024, and with Ericsson to build a 5G innovation hub in Q4 2024, despite long-lasting efforts by Huawei officials to be its main 5G partner. This contrasts with Huawei and ZTE’s success to secure partnerships for 5G or high-speed broadband rollout elsewhere in Southeast Asia . The relative poor performance of Chinese companies in Vietnam’s telecommunications industry is also reflected in the OTT market, where Chinese streaming platforms struggle to gain substantial market shares, conversely to other Southeast Asian countries. As shown in the graph above, Chinese platforms such as iQiyi, WeTV or Mango TV altogether only account for 8% of total revenue in Q3 2024, a share that has remained stable over the last two years....

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