Burn Less, Build Better: The OTT Pivot in Nigeria, Kenya & Ghana

In a recent reflection on iROKOtv’s long journey, Jason Njoku wrote that “the market won.”  After a decade chasing subscription streaming in Nigeria, the economics just didn’t work.The service shut down its operations by 2023, having burned USD 100 million in investment before ultimately concluding that the domestic market couldn’t sustain a paid OTT Model. That experience captured the optimism — and the limits — of the first wave of streaming in Africa. Yet by 2025, inflation, currency issues, and falling revenues caused a retreat for many services. Audiences, however, are still eager to find relevant and localised content . YouTube thrives, piracy shifts, advertisers engage, and telcos are adjusting. The question now is: what model will work and enable streaming to finally thrive in African countries? Repricing the Model: OTT Adapts for Local Growth In 2024, market uncertainty in Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana pushed platforms to rethink subscription streaming. Even budget OTT plans began to feel costly compared to essentials like food and transport. In Nigeria, Netflix increased its mobile plan from ₦1,200 to ₦2,200 — a necessary adjustment amid macroeconomic pressure. However, this shift coincided with a sharp decline in ARPU in USD, falling from over USD 4 in 2022 to USD 1.8 in 2024, with a temporary low of USD 1.00, largely driven by Naira devaluation and user churn. Showmax and StarTimes also increased prices and met pushback, even with bundled offers. As affordability becomes a moving target, platforms are now more selective — not just with pricing, but in how and where they invest. This shift is actively reshaping content strategies across the region. Smarter Bets: How SVOD Is Prioritizing What Works As production costs rise and currencies weaken, platforms are recalibrating their approach, pulling back on originals and prioritizing more predictable forms of content and distribution . In 2024, Amazon paused African originals to focus on licensing. Netflix trimmed its Nigerian slate and simplified offerings. Showmax leaned on global content, sports, and DStv bundling. This shift marks a break from earlier "scale fast" strategies. iROKOtv, which was once a Nollywood SVOD pioneer, can represent a warning about disproportionate ambitions in fragile markets. Subscriber trends suggest that caution may be paying off. Netflix’s user base in Nigeria, though fluctuating, rose from 189,000 in Q4 2022 to 204,000 by the end of 2024. Showmax leads with 476,000 subscribers, supported by Multichoice’s pay-TV ecosystem, while Amazon Prime Video remains stable at just over 60,000. These numbers reflect a core audience that is sticking around, even as platforms rebalance their strategy. This reset gives a platform a chance to better test pricing and content fit, and build the groundwork for models that are locally viable and financially sound.  This...