OTT Pay TV to represent 65% of total Pay TV subscriptions by 2030 in Brazil

Pay TV in Brazil has been experiencing a strong decline in cable and satellite for the last years, but the rapid expansion of OTT pay TV services (also known as vMVPDs) is reshaping the market.  According to Dataxis forecasts, OTT Pay TV subscriptions will grow from 2.5 million in 2024 to 6.1 million by 2030, representing 65% of total Pay TV households. Claro TV+ leads the market with over 1.2 million subscribers officially reported in Q1 2025, boosted by bundles with major SVODs. On the wholesale side, several operators are powering services for ISPs: Sky+ (ex-DGO) counts more than 2000 partners, Zapping TV around 1000, while Watch Brasil is emerging as the main consolidator. Watch, recently disclosed having partnered with 2180 ISPs – about a quarter of the market – either distributing its own app (with 170k subscribers estimated at Q2 2025) or providing white-label OTT platforms. The white-label approach is gaining traction. One of the driving forces behind this change is the expansion of regional Internet service providers, mostly Fibercos.  In Q2 2025, four major fiber operators – Alares, Ligga, Alloha Fibra and Vero – launched their own Pay TV apps through Watch’s platform. Ligga alone set a target of converting 10% of its fiber base (around 35k subscribers) in the first year. If replicated across new entrants, this could represent close to 400,000 additional OTT Pay TV subscribers, although scaling such adoption remains challenging for larger ISPs like Alares. Wholesale TV and white-label models are enabling ISPs to differentiate in a fragmented market, without the heavy costs of building TV platforms in-house. Questions remain about the profitability of these video services, and the bandwidth costs associated. However, the trend is clear: by 2030, this momentum could halt Brazil’s Pay TV decline.