Streaming in Africa: what potential beyond the Showmax-Netflix duopoly?

In late May 2024, the BBC announced that its streaming service, Britbox, would cease operations in South Africa, the only African country where it had launched in 2021. This decision coincides with significant shifts in the market. In January 2024, Prime Video revealed plans to reduce funding for local content production. Concurrently, the Nollywood platform IrokoTV has been transitioning its focus toward the diaspora outside the continent. At the same time though, in February 2024, Multichoice introduced an updated version of its Showmax streaming platform. Out of the 9 million OTT video subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of Q1 2024, representing 3.5% of households in the region, 4 million were based in South Africa (where penetration reaches 23% of households), and 1.6 million were in Nigeria (or 3% of households). The low penetration rate of OTT platforms suggests substantial market potential. However, the closures of multiple platforms and the reduction in investments indicate a highly competitive market, where Showmax and Netflix are stretching their lead. Netflix and Showmax lead the market with almost 60% of OTT video subscribers in the region In the first quarter of 2024, Showmax held the largest share of OTT video subscribers, capturing 30% of the market in volume, closely followed by Netflix at 27%.  Between 2023 and 2028, the number of Showmax OTT video subscribers is projected to more than triple, reaching 9.4 million, while Netflix subscribers are expected to more than double, to reach 6 million. The success of the South African platform tends to be explained by its promising extensive catalogue, featuring both international and local content. Showmax has bolstered its offerings by incorporating internationally acclaimed titles from NBCUniversal, Warner Bros, Sony Pictures and HBO to its initial catalogue made of Showmax Original, M-net and DStv original content. A wide range of content to satisfy subscriber demand The number of new titles available on Showmax rose steadily between December 2023 (+48) and January 2024 (+108). In February 2024, following the relaunch of the platform, 95 new titles were added to the catalogue before falling back in March 2024 (+13). The same trend can be observed at Netflix, with 231 new titles in January, 189 in February and 114 in March. For both platforms, the number of new titles rose by just over 125% between December 2023 and January 2024, then fell by 15-20% between January and February 2023, then by 40% for Netflix and 90% for Showmax between February and March 2024. Netflix's ability to generate new titles can be explained by different reasons. Netflix has a massive content budget, as it plans to spend over $17 billion on acquiring and producing new content in 2024 (around $13 billion in 2023)...