Smaller European markets to bring a third of Europe’s OTT growth by 2029

Five years ago, Disney+ launched in the Netherlands as a test market, today the platform gathers the third largest subscriber base on the continent. We have come to expect skyrocketing growth from OTT, but as it starts leveling off, the matter is what’s next for Europe. Top 5 markets will keep driving future growth The UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany grew upwards of 20B€ in 5 years, double their initial worth in 2019, and expectedly brought three-fourths of the whole continent’s new streaming revenues.  Top players strengthened their positions in these countries over the period, boosting this performance compared to smaller markets added more recently to their focus. However, despite most platforms being now settled across Europe, the trajectory set for the next 5 years keeps the most prominent markets at the forefront, as they are expected to grow in value by 35%. The rest of Europe will weigh 10 pts more, although also growing at a slower pace The remaining Western and Eastern countries should go from a fourth to a third of the net income adds, with the latter coming from a lower baseline, but registering higher growth rates. Still, most countries are approaching their peak and should grow less in the next five years than the five previous. Advertising will overtake subscriptions’ contribution Advertising revenues from AVOD and ad-tiers could bring two-thirds of OTT’s revenue growth. This trend is led by the Top 5 markets, with subscriptions representing less than 30% of the net growth between 2024 and 2029. So far boosted by subscription-models, Central and Eastern Europe should follow this trend from a distance, and still keep subscriptions contributing over half of the revenue additions. Besides the defining impact of Youtube and the other video social media, Netflix and Prime Video’s ad-tiers will leverage a chunk of the growth. This research highlight is based on our data coverage of OTT and Video and Online media and Advertising in Europe. Please contact us to get a demo and see the depth of our service.  Don't miss our next event, NXT Media Days Europe in Valencia, bringing together two dynamic event series, each focusing on pivotal areas of the evolving media and advertising ecosystem. By uniting Nextv Series Europe, and CTV Ad Days Europe under one brand, we provide a cohesive hub for industry professionals to explore cutting-edge trends, share insights, and develop strategies that will drive the future of media and advertising.