The proposed Netflix acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.’ studio and streaming assets at the end of 2025 reignited antitrust concerns and it still requires approval from the U.S. Department of Justice. At first glance, the deal fits a familiar narrative, the leading streamer acquiring a top-tier competitor. Critics often summarize it as “the #1 streamer buying the #3 streamer,” implying an automatic competition risk. Yet market data tells a more nuanced story. Based on Dataxis numbers for total OTT video revenues in the US, a combined Netflix–WBD entity would account for roughly 23% of subscription-based video revenues in 2025. This places it ahead of any standalone platform, but still below structural concern thresholds and broadly in line with Disney’s aggregated OTT market share of 22%. Defining the market is central. The argument weakens further when the market is expanded to total US video revenues. Once AVOD platforms or social video companies (Youtube, Meta, Tiktok) and TV Networks are included, the relative weight of Netflix–WBD declines. In this broader ecosystem, Disney remains structurally dominant due to its combination of linear and non-linear assets, while competing directly with Alphabet and Meta. From an audience perspective, Nielsen’s The Gauge data from October 2025 shows that combined Netflix and HBO Max viewing share (around 9%) remains below YouTube (approximately 13%). A week after Netflix’s offer, Paramount Global counter-attacked with an offer valuing Netflix at USD 108.4 bn, eventually denied. While its portfolio appears larger on paper, its fragmented structure of assets, political exposure (with assets like CNN) and reliance on international capital make the transaction harder to defend. Netflix’s bid, by contrast, is a focused vertical integration. Ultimately, market share alone is a weak basis to block the deal. The key antitrust issue is whether the merger would reinforce OTT price pressure, given Netflix’s role as price leader in the US market, and whether regulators can prove consumer harm. Critics also warn that consolidation could reduce content diversity and weaken the production ecosystem. What matters is much more than just the size of the pie slice.
